Core Dimension Analysis of China-Australia Freight Trade Structure (2025)
I. Total Trade Volume and Fluctuations: Entering a Period of Structural Adjustment after Recovery
Total Volume Characteristics
In 2024, the bilateral goods trade volume between China and Australia was 211.3 billion US dollars, a year-on-year decrease of 8.1%, ending the growth trend of 4.1% in 2023. This fluctuation was mainly influenced by the decline in commodity prices, weak global demand, and trade structure optimization.
In the first half of 2025, Australia's coal export volume decreased by 5.6% year-on-year, with exports to China dropping by 7.1%, indicating pressure on traditional resource-based commodity trade.
Phased Recovery and Adjustment
Recovery in 2023: The easing of Sino-Australian relations led to a 4.1% increase in trade volume. Australia resumed exports of coal, barley, cotton, and other products to China. After the lifting of the coal ban, 80% of Australia's trade surplus with China in 2023 came from the Chinese market.
Adjustment in 2024: The trade structure shifted from resource dependence to diversification. The supply of resource-based commodities such as minerals (accounting for 57.67% of total imports) and energy (14.66%) remained stable, while trade in high-value-added products such as beef and dairy products grew significantly.
Opportunities in 2025: New energy cooperation (such as joint development of lithium and rare earths), green agriculture, and services became new growth points. At the 6th China International Import Expo, Australian enterprises signed agreements worth nearly 30 billion Australian dollars, covering high-value-added fields.
II. Commodity Structure: Coexistence of Resource Dependence and Industrial Complementarity
China's Exports to Australia
Manufactured Goods Dominance: Manufactured goods such as mechanical and electrical products, textiles, furniture, and toys account for over 60% of China's total exports to Australia. In 2016, the proportion of electrical products was no more than 25%, with a relatively even distribution of values.
Growth in High-Tech Products: The revealed comparative advantage index of China's general industrial machinery and telecommunication and audio equipment rose from 0.70 and 1.72 in 2000 to 1.09 and 2.77 in 2009, respectively, with export volumes increasing by 12.1 times and 14.8 times to Australia.
China's Imports from Australia
Resource-Based Commodities as Core: Minerals such as iron ore, coal, and natural gas account for over 50% of China's total imports from Australia. In 2016, over 50% of China's imports from Australia were minerals, with iron ore having the highest proportion.
Growth in Agricultural Products and High-Value-Added Products: The 2024 China International Import Expo promoted the import of high-value-added products such as beef and dairy products. Meanwhile, Australia mitigated the fluctuations in exports to China by expanding into markets like India and Vietnam.
Trade Characteristics between Industries
China-Australia trade presents a typical North-South trade pattern: China, as a developing country, exports manufactured goods, while Australia, as a developed country, exports raw materials.
Intra-industry trade is concentrated in areas such as food, leather, textile raw materials, and manufactured goods, but overall, inter-industry trade remains dominant.
III. Trade Dependency: Asymmetry and Risks Coexist
Australia's Dependency on China
High Sensitivity to Total Volume: Australia's trade volume with China accounts for 11.56% of its GDP (2007 data), far higher than China's trade with Australia as a proportion of its GDP (2.7%).
High Export Concentration: In the first half of 2025, China accounted for 21.8% of Australia's coal exports, while Japan remained the largest buyer (26.8%), but its import volume decreased by 10.5% year-on-year.
Risk Warning: If China's demand drops significantly, Australia's foreign trade volume could shrink by 10% to 20%, triggering negative feedback in the employment market.
China's Dependency on Australia
Sensitivity to Strategic Commodities: China is highly dependent on Australia for iron ore imports. In 2025, iron ore imports from Australia accounted for 45% of China's total imports.
Progress in Diversification: China is gradually reducing its reliance on a single source by promoting resource diplomacy and establishing overseas resource bases (such as iron ore projects in Africa), but the substitution process still requires time. IV. Policies and Agreements: Upgrading and Structural Optimization of Free Trade Agreement
Deepening Effects of ChAFTA
Tariff Reduction Expansion: Under the framework of the 2024 Memorandum, tariffs on 98% of goods exported to Australia will be reduced to zero, and the inspection period for agricultural products will be shortened from 14 days to 72 hours.
Digital Trade Cooperation: A dedicated working group for digital trade will be established to promote the interconnection of cross-border e-commerce payment systems.
Strategic Economic Dialogue Mechanism
Joint Development of Resources: A joint working group for clean energy and critical minerals will be set up to identify joint development projects for strategic resources such as lithium and rare earths.
Infrastructure Investment: A priority list will be established, with the first batch including the renovation of the iron ore railway in Western Australia and the construction of a photovoltaic power station in Queensland.
Service Trade and Financial Cooperation
Mutual Recognition of Financial Services Pilot: Allow financial institutions from both countries to issue bonds across borders and promote direct settlement in RMB and Australian dollars.
Expansion in High-Value Areas: The proportion of service trade in the agreements signed at the 2024 China International Import Expo will increase to 30%, covering areas such as logistics, finance, and education.
V. Future Trends: Green Transformation and Diversified Layout
Breakthroughs in New Energy Cooperation
Joint Development of Critical Minerals: China and Australia will jointly develop strategic resources such as lithium and rare earths. In 2025, the largest vanadium battery energy storage experimental base in the Southern Hemisphere will be launched, aiming to achieve a charge and discharge efficiency of over 85%.
Clean Energy Projects: Jointly build the Davis Station supply center and develop heavy-duty polar transport vehicles with a load capacity of up to 15 tons.
Diversification of Trade Structure
Growth of High-Value Products: The export growth rate of Australian beef and dairy products to China will exceed 20%, and the proportion of China's mechanical and electrical products exported to Australia will increase to 30%.
Emerging Market Layout: Australia will expand its markets in India and Southeast Asia through the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework, while China will deepen resource cooperation with Africa and Latin America through the Belt and Road Initiative.
Risks and Challenges
Geopolitical Interference: Technical cooperation faces the risk of US intervention. Australia's participation in the US-led Indo-Pacific Economic Framework in 2025 may affect the upgrading of the China-Australia Free Trade Agreement.
Environmental Protection Conflicts: The conflict between resource development and ecological protection is intensifying. The coal mine project in Queensland, Australia, has been delayed due to environmental disputes.
